Evaluating the performance of a deterministic daily rainfall–runoff model in a low-flow context

1998 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 797-812 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Y. Smakhtin ◽  
K. Sami ◽  
D. A. Hughes
Keyword(s):  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Runoff Model

scholarly journals Constraining a lumped rainfall-runoff model with piezometry to improve low-flow simulation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Pelletier ◽  
Vakzen Andréassian
Keyword(s):  
Flow Simulation ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
Sample Test ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Runoff Model

<p>Most lumped hydrological models are focused on the rainfall-runoff relationship, since climatic conditions are the driving force of the hydrological behaviour of a catchment. Many hydrological models, like the ones used by the French national PREMHYCE platform, only take climatic variables as inputs – daily rainfall and potential evaporation – to simulate and forecast low-flows. Yet, a hydrological drought is generally a medium- to long-term phenomenon, which is the consequence of long records of dry climatic conditions. Daily lumped hydrological models often struggle to integrate these records to reproduce catchment memory.</p><p>In many French catchments, it was observed that this memory of past hydroclimatic conditions is well represented in piezometric signals that are broadly available over the national territory. Indeed, aquifers, especially the large ones, do store water on the long, feeding rivers during droughts: aquifers are not only <em>water carriers</em> – the etymology for the word <em>aquifer </em>– they are also <em>memory carriers</em>. A dataset of 108 catchments, each of them being associated with one or several piezometers, was used to investigate whether the GR6J daily lumped rainfall-runoff model could be constrained by piezometric time series to improve low-flow simulations. We found that a particular state of the model, the exponential store, is particularly well correlated with piezometry in most studied catchments.</p><p>In order to get a univocal relationship between the exponential store and piezometry, a multi-objective calibration approach was implemented, optimising both (i) flow simulation with a criterion focused on low-flows and (ii) affine correspondence between the exponential store level and piezometry. For that purpose, a new parameter was added to the model. The modified calibration was then evaluated through a split-sample test and the performance in simulating particular drought events. The calibrated store-piezometry relationship can now be used for data assimilation to improve low-flow forecasting.</p>

scholarly journals Analysis of low flow indices under varying climatic conditions in Poland

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 373-389 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marzena Osuch ◽  
Renata Romanowicz ◽  
Wai K. Wong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Objective Functions ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Runoff Model ◽  
Simulated Time

Abstract Changes in low flow indices under future climates are estimated for eight catchments in Poland. A simulation approach is used to derive daily flows under changing climatic conditions, following RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The HBV rainfall–runoff model is used to simulate low flows. The model is calibrated and validated using streamflow observations from periods 1971–2000 and 2001–2010. Two objective functions are used for calibration: Nash–Sutcliffe and log transformed Nash–Sutcliffe. Finally, the models are run using the bias-corrected precipitation and temperature data simulated by GCM/RCM models for the periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. We estimate low flow indices for the simulated time series, including annual minima of 7-day mean river flows and number, severity and duration of low flow events. We quantify the biases of low flow indices by N-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) analysis and Tukey test. Results indicate a large effect of climate models, as well as objective functions, on the low flow indices obtained. A comparison of indices from the two future periods with the reference period 1971–2000 confirms the trends obtained in previous studies, in the form of a projected decrease in the frequency and intensity of low flow events.

scholarly journals Impact of downscaled rainfall biases on projected runoff changes

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 2981-2997
Author(s):  
Stephen P. Charles ◽  
Francis H. S. Chiew ◽  
Nicholas J. Potter ◽  
Hongxing Zheng ◽  
Guobin Fu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Supply ◽  
Grid Point ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Rainfall Frequency ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Runoff Model ◽  
Regional Water

Abstract. Realistic projections of changes to daily rainfall frequency and magnitude, at catchment scales, are required to assess the potential impacts of climate change on regional water supply. We show that quantile–quantile mapping (QQM) bias-corrected daily rainfall from dynamically downscaled WRF simulations of current climate produce biased hydrological simulations, in a case study for the state of Victoria, Australia (237 629 km2). While the QQM bias correction can remove bias in daily rainfall distributions at each 10 km × 10 km grid point across Victoria, the GR4J rainfall–runoff model underestimates runoff when driven with QQM bias-corrected daily rainfall. We compare simulated runoff differences using bias-corrected and empirically scaled rainfall for several key water supply catchments across Victoria and discuss the implications for confidence in the magnitude of projected changes for mid-century. Our results highlight the imperative for methods that can correct for temporal and spatial biases in dynamically downscaled daily rainfall if they are to be suitable for hydrological projection.

scholarly journals Sensitivity Analysis to Investigate the Reliability of the Grid-Based Rainfall-Runoff Model

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 1839 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mun-Ju Shin ◽  
Yun Choi
Keyword(s):  
Water Movement ◽  
Parameter Sensitivity ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Runoff Simulation ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Flow Calculation ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Runoff Model ◽  
Grid Based

This study aimed to assess the suitability of the parameters of a physically based, distributed, grid-based rainfall-runoff model. We analyzed parameter sensitivity with a dataset of eight rainfall events that occurred in two catchments of South Korea, using the Sobol’ method. Parameters identified as sensitive responded adequately to the scale of the rainfall events and the objective functions employed. Parameter sensitivity varied depending on rainfall scale, even in the same catchment. Interestingly, for a rainfall event causing considerable runoff, parameters related to initial soil saturation and soil water movement played a significant role in low flow calculation and high flow calculation, respectively. The larger and steeper catchment exhibited a greater difference in parameter sensitivity between rainfall events. Finally, we found that setting an incorrect parameter range that is physically impossible can have a large impact on runoff simulation, leading to substantial uncertainty in the simulation results. The proposed analysis method and the results from our study can help researchers using a distributed rainfall-runoff model produce more reliable analysis results.

scholarly journals Conceptual Rainfall–Runoff Model Performance with Different Spatial Rainfall Inputs

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1100-1112 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Vaze ◽  
D. A. Post ◽  
F. H. S. Chiew ◽  
J.-M. Perraud ◽  
J. Teng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Simulation ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Grid Cell ◽  
Rainfall Series ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Runoff Model

Abstract Different methods have been used to obtain the daily rainfall time series required to drive conceptual rainfall–runoff models, depending on data availability, time constraints, and modeling objectives. This paper investigates the implications of different rainfall inputs on the calibration and simulation of 4 rainfall–runoff models using data from 240 catchments across southeast Australia. The first modeling experiment compares results from using a single lumped daily rainfall series for each catchment obtained from three methods: single rainfall station, Thiessen average, and average of interpolated rainfall surface. The results indicate considerable improvements in the modeled daily runoff and mean annual runoff in the model calibration and model simulation over an independent test period with better spatial representation of rainfall. The second experiment compares modeling using a single lumped daily rainfall series and modeling in all grid cells within a catchment using different rainfall inputs for each grid cell. The results show only marginal improvement in the “distributed” application compared to the single rainfall series, and only in two of the four models for the larger catchments. Where a single lumped catchment-average daily rainfall series is used, care should be taken to obtain a rainfall series that best represents the spatial rainfall distribution across the catchment. However, there is little advantage in driving a conceptual rainfall–runoff model with different rainfall inputs from different parts of the catchment compared to using a single lumped rainfall series, where only estimates of runoff at the catchment outlet is required.

scholarly journals Climate change model as a decision support tool for water resources management in northern Iraq: a case study of Greater Zab River

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 197-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Osman ◽  
N. Al-Ansari ◽  
M. Abdellatif
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Decision Support Tool ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Runoff Model

Abstract The northern region of Iraq heavily depends on rivers, such as the Greater Zab, for water supply and irrigation. Thus, river water management in light of future climate change is of paramount importance in the region. In this study, daily rainfall and temperature obtained from the Greater Zab catchment, for 1961–2008, were used in building rainfall and evapotranspiration models using LARS-WG and multiple linear regressions, respectively. A rainfall–runoff model, in the form of autoregressive model with exogenous factors, has been developed using observed flow, rainfall and evapotranspiration data. The calibrated rainfall–runoff model was subsequently used to investigate the impacts of climate change on the Greater Zab flows for the near (2011–2030), medium (2046–2065), and far (2080–2099) futures. Results from the impacts model showed that the catchment is projected to suffer a significant reduction in total annual flow in the far future; with more severe drop during the winter and spring seasons in the range of 25 to 65%. This would have serious ramifications for the current agricultural activities in the catchment. The results could be of significant benefits for water management planners in the catchment as they can be used in allocating water for different users in the catchment.

scholarly journals Investigation of the performance of a simple rainfall disaggregation scheme using semi-distributed hydrological modelling of the Lee catchment, UK

2010 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 134-144
Author(s):  
Marie-Laure Segond ◽  
Howard S. Wheater ◽  
Christian Onof
Keyword(s):  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Expected Performance ◽  
Hourly Data ◽  
Temporal Disaggregation ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Event Based ◽  
Spatially Varying ◽  
Runoff Model

A simple and practical spatial–temporal disaggregation scheme to convert observed daily rainfall to hourly data is presented, in which the observed sub-daily temporal profile available at one gauge is applied linearly to all sites over the catchment to reproduce the spatially varying daily totals. The performance of the methodology is evaluated using an event-based, semi-distributed, nonlinear hydrological rainfall–runoff model to test the suitability of the disaggregation scheme for UK conditions for catchment sizes of 80–1,000 km2. The joint procedure is tested on the Lee catchment, UK, for five events from a 12 year period of data from 16 rain gauges and 12 flow stations. The disaggregation scheme generally performs extremely well in reproducing the simulated flow for the natural catchments, although, as expected, performance deteriorates for localized convective rainfall. However, some reduction in performance occurs when the catchments are artificially urbanised.

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